by Doc – Owner, Founder, Invests Solely in Despicable Me Funko Pops Because He’s a Real Man
I’m only talking about the American Pokemon Card markets, though I’m sure this same culture exists in other card markets.
We’ve covered “amiibo economics” on this blog several times now, and have been blessed with a very stable and normal secondhand amiibo market for the last 3-4 years so there’s precious little to report on. Nintendo has diligently kept track of the amiibo that will be needed by players as new games come out, reprinting that game’s amiibo as needed, and the supply of amiibo figures has for the most part met demand. The end result is that you’ll be a bit frustrated to find an amiibo figure released in the last three years that’s going for more than $30 secondhand. Of course, the really old amiibo like the famous Qbby amiibo stick out as examples of unmet demand, but overall we as a hobby are lucky to have Nintendo managing supply as well as they have. Because of the consistent supply, amiibo scalpers in Estados Unidos realized there was no money to be made in the hobby, and it’s now basically a thing of the past (though we’ll see how it’s handled during the Switch 2 era).
The Pokemon Company has been applying the same philosophy with their Trading Card Game for the last few years as well. Whenever a set releases that sells out like hot cakes, it receives (in the United States) plentiful waves of reprints at MSRP over the following months. If it’s really popular, it’ll get reprints for up to and maybe even past a year. Crown Zenith, for example, was hailed as the pinnacle of Sword and Shield sets and considered to be a must-invest set at its release in January of 2023. It sold out, was reprinted, and sold out again and again. It’s sold so well that it received yet another reprint and a completely new product box in August 2024 in the Sea & Sky package. It’s entirely reasonable to believe that Crown Zenith, as a set that is guaranteed to sell out, could receive a reprint even this late into its life because of its ridiculous ability to move units.
Pokemon 151 is in the same boat. It’s the big collectors’ set of the Scarlet & Violet era and has been the content gravy train for Poketubers since its announcement and release in September 2023 (about 14 months ago at the time of this writing), and as such has sold out over and over and over, receiving lots of mid-scale reprints and redistributions along the way to satisfy demand. It’s very apparent to everyone watching that the Pokemon Company will reprint what sells and abandon what doesn’t in an effort to meet demand, and it’s doing a pretty good job of that. Considering the incestuousness of ownership between Nintendo and TPC, it’s a safe bet to say they’re at least supping from the same plate of wisdom regarding how to satisfy collector’s demand, so reprints of supposedly high-investment products are basically guaranteed. So logically, if you’re investing in a product that’s low on supply but high in demand, but the product receives a lot more supply through a reprint… your investment will become little more than a waste of time as its price will drop.
And the dumbass Pokemon Card “Investors” somehow don’t realize this.
See, here’s what’s happening:
- Pokemon 151 – Blooming Waters was just shown off. It’s a new package for Pokemon 151 that comes with lots of booster pack reprints. This likely isn’t a repackage of unsold booster packs (because there are none)-it’s yet another reprinting of Pokemon 151 booster packs in a new package.
- Pokemon card investors are decrying how the reprint will drive down Pokemon 151 prices because it’s introducing so much new supply into the market, with boosters priced at $5 each compared to the current secondhand price of $8+. They’re balking at the notion that 151 could get reprinted.
- When the product releases, it’ll get bought up immediately (with investors likely playing a significant role in that) further incentivizing the Pokemon Company to produce more 151.
They’re panicking that even after releasing the other special sets, Shrouded Fable and Paldean Fates, Pokemon 151 is getting attention. These people somehow don’t understand that TPC will bend over backwards to meet demand even for sets that are way, way past their release date if those sets will sell. But why wouldn’t they? These sets will sell! And when they do, the value of the “investments” will go down just as it always has.
The fact of the matter is, if you’re betting on any Pokemon set released in the last twoish years and plan to cash out your money in the next twoish years, you are betting against the Pokemon Company acting in its own best interest. Given how consistently the Pokemon Company has operated exclusively for the best interest of its bottom line, I can’t imagine that that’s a smart bet by any means.
In conclusion, every serious Pokemon “investor” who invests this way is stupid.
Amiibo Doctor 