by Doc – Owner, Founder, Wonders if Casinos Are Rigged Too
Right now I’m constructing a very large list of how to beat every 6-star Tera Raid, and replaying battles against each raid opponent several different ways, using several different builds and with different NPC partners. I’ve been noticing something very unusual: statistically, there are so many regular occurrences that are so absurdly unlikely to ever occur that I should only be seeing them once or twice in my lifetime. For example, I was just in a Jolteon raid, and Jolteon used Thunder Wave on me. Fine, I’m paralyzed, no big deal. Paralysis has a one in four chance to take away your turn. I can survive on 75% of my turns, this build should work just fine against Jolteon anyway. I didn’t mind it.
Except once I was paralyzed, the next four moves that I made were stopped by paralysis. That is a 1 in 256 chance. I got quite annoyed by that, but beat Jolteon within an inch of its life, and quit the raid to restart it with a different build as per usual.
And then it happened again in the next raid, except this time it was five turns in a row. And four turns in the next one. It’s not that every single time I fight Jolteon I get this occurrence, but for some reason when I fight Jolteon I am a lot more likely to get extremely unlikely outcomes and they seem to keep occurring before Jolteon puts up his Tera shield.
I’ve long suspected that critical hits, statuses, and secondary effects of moves that the Tera Raid opponent uses have increased odds in some way. I can’t tell you the number of times that I will get hit by two critical hits in a row (by an opponent who has notably not used a critical hit probability buff) and then a 10% status effect chance from something like Ice Beam or Shadow Ball, but I chalked it up to just being salty. But this is outrageous! I’m not a dataminer, but I would bet you good money that in at least some of the raids, special rules are put in place to make certain outcomes more likely. It’s not inconceivable that the developers would want a Jolteon raid to have some sort of theme, so they made paralysis more likely.
I’ve had similar experiences in the Kingdra raid. Kingdra uses Focus Energy at the start of the raid, raising his critical hit probability to a 50/50 coin flip. However, when I was researching the Kingdra raid for my post, I fought him six times. In each of those six times around 70%+ of his attacks were a critical hit, well above the expected 50%. In one raid it was 83%! You would expect that about 15% of the time, that 50/50 chance would result in a 70/30 split towards having a critical hit. You wouldn’t expect that 15% chance to occur six times in a row.
I have no other explanation for this than individual Tera Raids having some sort of different RNG rules for the moves that the opponent uses. I can’t prove it, but I think this RNG is rigged.
Amiibo Doctor 